Jill and Ryan Predict the 2019 Oscars
This is one of the most wide open races in recent history, but we're here to do our best in forecasting what will win. Here are our predictions for Sunday night!
A Star Is Born
Will win: We’re starting off bold and going against the conventional wisdom by predicting Black Panther to take home the top prize. It did win big at the SAG awards (and the acting branch is the biggest group of Academy voters), and we expect it to show up in 2nd or 3rd place on a lot of preferential ballots.
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Will win: Rami Malek is as close as this year has to a lock. We’re not happy about it.
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Will win: While we would love to see Olivia Colman win for the best performance of the year, or a huge upset by Melissa McCarthy, the smart money is on Glenn Close.
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Will win: We love Mahershala as much as anyone, but his performance in Green Book is not the stunner of his presence in Moonlight, which he won for two years ago. We’re picking Richard E. Grant to pull an upset here.
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Will win: We’re sad If Beale Street Could Talk missed a chance at Best Picture, but we think Regina King will take home this one. Maybe next year, Amy.
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice
Will win: This is Spike Lee’s first nomination, and this would be the perfect year to recognize him, especially since Alfonso Cuarón won just a few years ago. We think this narrative will land him a new golden buddy.
Incredibles 2, Brad Bird
Isle of Dogs, Wes Anderson
Mirai, Mamoru Hosoda
Ralph Breaks the Internet, Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman
Will win: Spider-Man, Spider-Man, does whatever a Spider-Verse can, wins an Oscar…
Animal Behaviour, Alison Snowden, David Fine
Bao, Domee Shi
Late Afternoon, Louise Bagnall
One Small Step, Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
Weekends, Trevor Jimenez
Will win: Bao. Ain’t nothin’ gonna stop this dumplin’.
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
Will win: We also think BlacKkKlansman is going to be recognized for telling this story.
The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay
Will win: The witty repartee of The Favourite is certain to be recognized here.
Cold War, Lukasz Zal
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique
Will win: All of these movies look great, but it is hard to deny the visual beauty of Roma. If there’s an upset, look for it to be Lukasz Zal, who was also nominated for Pawel Pawlikowski’s previous film Ida. Black and white movies rule.
Best Documentary Feature:
Free Solo, Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
Hale County This Morning, This Evening, RaMell Ross
Minding the Gap, Bing Liu
Of Fathers and Sons, Talal Derki
RBG, Betsy West, Julie Cohen
Will win: We loved Free Solo and expect to win because it is as palatable as RBG, but far more cinematic. We wouldn’t mind being wrong if Minding the Gap squeaks it out.
Best Documentary Short Subject:
Black Sheep, Ed Perkins
End Game, Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
Lifeboat, Skye Fitzgerald
A Night at the Garden, Marshall Curry
Period. End of Sentence., Rayka Zehtabchi
Will win: LA connections and a novel subject for this category makes us pick Period. End of Sentence. as the likely winner.
Best Live Action Short Film:
Detainment, Vincent Lambe
Fauve, Jeremy Comte
Marguerite, Marianne Farley
Mother, Rodrigo Sorogoyen
Skin, Guy Nattiv
Will win: Where Oscar pools are won and lost. Marguerite seems to be the favorite, but Skin (from A24) leaves a strong impression.
Best Foreign Language Film:
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Will win: There’s an outside chance that it won’t take it, but we fully expect Roma to win this one. We’d vote Shoplifters if we could.
BlacKkKlansman, Barry Alexander Brown
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Ottman
Green Book, Patrick J. Don Vito
The Favourite, Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Vice, Hank Corwin
Will win: The American Cinema Editors guild award often indicates the winner of this Academy Award. So we’re following them and predicting Bohemian Rhapsody. No, we don;’t get it either.
Black Panther, Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Warhurst
First Man, Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
A Quiet Place, Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
Roma, Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
Will win: It’s a shame we have to get this far down before seeing First Man, but the impressive flight and space sequences work in part because of the impressive sound work. We think it will be recognized for that.
A Star Is Born
Will win: This is the one that musicals tend to win, and we think the use of archival sound in Bohemian Rhapsody will likely net the film this award as well.
Black Panther, Hannah Beachler
First Man, Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
The Favourite, Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
Mary Poppins Returns, John Myhre, Gordon Sim
Roma, Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez
Will win: Black Panther might be too digital to win here, so we’re predicting The Favourite here. The least shocking upset would be Roma winning here.
BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard
Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson
If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
Will win: We think If Beale Street Could Talk walks away with two Oscars Sunday night, and Brittell’s distinctive score is very deserving.
“All The Stars” from Black Panther by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
“I’ll Fight” from RBG by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from A Star Is Born by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
Will win: We assume the Academy is as off the deep end for “Shallow” as we are.
Makeup and Hair:
Mary Queen of Scots
Will win: It’s Vice.
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Mary Zophres
Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter
The Favourite, Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns, Sandy Powell
Mary Queen of Scots, Alexandra Byrne
Will win: With a few options here, we are going with our heart and predicting Black Panther, for the sheer number, variety, and overall quality of the costumes.
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Will win: Backing into this category by figuring that First Man is not only impressive, but the only one of these films to have a nomination in another category.