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Jill and Ryan Predict the 2019 Oscars

Jill and Ryan Predict the 2019 Oscars

This is one of the most wide open races in recent history, but we're here to do our best in forecasting what will win. Here are our predictions for Sunday night!

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Best Picture:

  • Black Panther

  • BlacKkKlansman

  • Bohemian Rhapsody

  • The Favourite

  • Green Book

  • Roma

  • A Star Is Born

  • Vice

Will win: We’re starting off bold and going against the conventional wisdom by predicting Black Panther to take home the top prize. It did win big at the SAG awards (and the acting branch is the biggest group of Academy voters), and we expect it to show up in 2nd or 3rd place on a lot of preferential ballots.

Lead Actor:

  • Christian Bale, Vice

  • Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

  • Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

  • Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

  • Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Will win: Rami Malek is as close as this year has to a lock. We’re not happy about it.

Lead Actress:

  • Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

  • Glenn Close, The Wife

  • Olivia Colman, The Favourite

  • Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

  • Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Will win: While we would love to see Olivia Colman win for the best performance of the year, or a huge upset by Melissa McCarthy, the smart money is on Glenn Close.

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Supporting Actor:

  • Mahershala Ali, Green Book

  • Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

  • Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

  • Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

  • Sam Rockwell, Vice

Will win: We love Mahershala as much as anyone, but his performance in Green Book is not the stunner of his presence in Moonlight, which he won for two years ago. We’re picking Richard E. Grant to pull an upset here.

Supporting Actress:

  • Amy Adams, Vice

  • Marina de Tavira, Roma

  • Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

  • Emma Stone, The Favourite

  • Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Will win: We’re sad If Beale Street Could Talk missed a chance at Best Picture, but we think Regina King will take home this one. Maybe next year, Amy.

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Director:

  • Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

  • Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

  • Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

  • Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

  • Adam McKay, Vice

Will win: This is Spike Lee’s first nomination, and this would be the perfect year to recognize him, especially since Alfonso Cuarón won just a few years ago. We think this narrative will land him a new golden buddy.

Animated Feature:

  • Incredibles 2, Brad Bird

  • Isle of Dogs, Wes Anderson

  • Mirai, Mamoru Hosoda

  • Ralph Breaks the Internet, Rich Moore, Phil Johnston

  • Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman

Will win: Spider-Man, Spider-Man, does whatever a Spider-Verse can, wins an Oscar…

Animated Short:

  • Animal Behaviour, Alison Snowden, David Fine

  • Bao, Domee Shi

  • Late Afternoon, Louise Bagnall

  • One Small Step, Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas

  • Weekends, Trevor Jimenez

Will win: Bao. Ain’t nothin’ gonna stop this dumplin’.

Adapted Screenplay:

  • The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen , Ethan Coen

  • BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee

  • Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty

  • If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins

  • A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Will win: We also think BlacKkKlansman is going to be recognized for telling this story.

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Original Screenplay:

  • The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara

  • First Reformed, Paul Schrader

  • Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly

  • Roma, Alfonso Cuarón

  • Vice, Adam McKay

Will win: The witty repartee of The Favourite is certain to be recognized here.

Cinematography:

  • Cold War, Lukasz Zal

  • The Favourite, Robbie Ryan

  • Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel

  • Roma, Alfonso Cuarón

  • A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique

Will win: All of these movies look great, but it is hard to deny the visual beauty of Roma. If there’s an upset, look for it to be Lukasz Zal, who was also nominated for Pawel Pawlikowski’s previous film Ida. Black and white movies rule.

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Best Documentary Feature:

  • Free Solo, Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi

  • Hale County This Morning, This Evening, RaMell Ross

  • Minding the Gap, Bing Liu

  • Of Fathers and Sons, Talal Derki

  • RBG, Betsy West, Julie Cohen

Will win: We loved Free Solo and expect to win because it is as palatable as RBG, but far more cinematic. We wouldn’t mind being wrong if Minding the Gap squeaks it out.

Best Documentary Short Subject:

  • Black Sheep, Ed Perkins

  • End Game, Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman

  • Lifeboat, Skye Fitzgerald

  • A Night at the Garden, Marshall Curry

  • Period. End of Sentence., Rayka Zehtabchi

Will win: LA connections and a novel subject for this category makes us pick Period. End of Sentence. as the likely winner.

Best Live Action Short Film:

  • Detainment, Vincent Lambe

  • Fauve, Jeremy Comte

  • Marguerite, Marianne Farley

  • Mother, Rodrigo Sorogoyen

  • Skin, Guy Nattiv

Will win: Where Oscar pools are won and lost. Marguerite seems to be the favorite, but Skin (from A24) leaves a strong impression.

Best Foreign Language Film:

  • Capernaum (Lebanon)

  • Cold War (Poland)

  • Never Look Away (Germany)

  • Roma (Mexico)

  • Shoplifters (Japan)

Will win: There’s an outside chance that it won’t take it, but we fully expect Roma to win this one. We’d vote Shoplifters if we could.

Film Editing:

  • BlacKkKlansman, Barry Alexander Brown

  • Bohemian Rhapsody, John Ottman

  • Green Book, Patrick J. Don Vito

  • The Favourite, Yorgos Mavropsaridis

  • Vice, Hank Corwin

Will win: The American Cinema Editors guild award often indicates the winner of this Academy Award. So we’re following them and predicting Bohemian Rhapsody. No, we don;’t get it either.

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Sound Editing:

  • Black Panther, Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker

  • Bohemian Rhapsody, John Warhurst

  • First Man, Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan

  • A Quiet Place, Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl

  • Roma, Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

Will win: It’s a shame we have to get this far down before seeing First Man, but the impressive flight and space sequences work in part because of the impressive sound work. We think it will be recognized for that.

Sound Mixing:

  • Black Panther

  • Bohemian Rhapsody

  • First Man

  • Roma

  • A Star Is Born

Will win: This is the one that musicals tend to win, and we think the use of archival sound in Bohemian Rhapsody will likely net the film this award as well.

Production Design:

  • Black Panther, Hannah Beachler

  • First Man, Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas

  • The Favourite, Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton

  • Mary Poppins Returns, John Myhre, Gordon Sim

  • Roma, Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

Will win: Black Panther might be too digital to win here, so we’re predicting The Favourite here. The least shocking upset would be Roma winning here.

Original Score:

  • BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard

  • Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson

  • If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell

  • Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat

  • Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

Will win: We think If Beale Street Could Talk walks away with two Oscars Sunday night, and Brittell’s distinctive score is very deserving.

Original Song:

  • “All The Stars” from Black Panther by Kendrick Lamar, SZA

  • “I’ll Fight” from RBG by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson

  • “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

  • “Shallow” from A Star Is Born by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice

  • “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Will win: We assume the Academy is as off the deep end for “Shallow” as we are.

Makeup and Hair:

  • Border

  • Mary Queen of Scots

  • Vice

Will win: It’s Vice.

Costume Design:

  • The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Mary Zophres

  • Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter

  • The Favourite, Sandy Powell

  • Mary Poppins Returns, Sandy Powell

  • Mary Queen of Scots, Alexandra Byrne

Will win: With a few options here, we are going with our heart and predicting Black Panther, for the sheer number, variety, and overall quality of the costumes.

Visual Effects:

  • Avengers: Infinity War

  • Christopher Robin

  • First Man

  • Ready Player One

  • Solo: A Star Wars Story

Will win: Backing into this category by figuring that First Man is not only impressive, but the only one of these films to have a nomination in another category.

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